A United Ireland Referendum Should Not Transform Into 'Another Brexit', Analysts Warn

Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that split the nation and unleashed disorder, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is ready.

That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Institutions Not Ready

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.

"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."

Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue

The pair have examined the political, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.

"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."

Legal Framework

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there might be a national vote.

Insufficient Substantive Discussion

Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.

"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate with even the essentials. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"

Book's Approach

In the book, none of the commentators endorses unity or the status quo. Each authors two essays that seek impartiality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and social statistics, past examples and structural examples.

Arguments range over national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.

"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Debate implies an acceptance of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."

Parallel Votes

A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens claim they favour unity but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to reflect unionists' British culture.

"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.

Probability of Public Vote

The journalist believes a referendum in his era is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a negligent government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid arguments, he commented. "One side will win here and the other side will in the end be defeated but each side has possesses something to acquire from the other's viewpoints."

Call for Wider Dialogue

Westminster should engage with the discussion, stated the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."